Two headlines say the Fed moved its median dot up. One refers to the end of this year and the other to the end of next year. Before deciding either is hawkish, put the calendar years back into the headlines and write down what rates markets already priced.
Start with original Federal Reserve projection table. Look for calendar horizon, median and width of distribution. The calculation you want is the fixed-year policy median in successive projections. A common reason for a discrepancy is anonymous projections and a changing group of participants. The first worked figures below are illustrative. The historical section identifies the actual observations used and lets you change one assumption at a time.
Reconstruct the middle observation
Arrange a made-up set of seven projections from low to high: 3.875, 4.125, 4.125, 4.375, 4.625, 4.625 and 4.875 percent. The fourth value is 4.375%. Move one 4.125 to 4.625 and the new median is 4.625%, even though six participants left their projections unchanged. A median can jump without a broad change across the committee.
For an even count, take the average of the two middle values. Use the official table’s precision when citing a published median. Participants include voting and nonvoting policymakers. Their individual paths and conditions can differ. Connecting medians across columns does not recover an individual participant’s policy path.
Follow one fixed calendar year
Compare June’s projection for December of a specified year with September’s projection for December of that same year. Crossing December can relabel the columns. A change caused entirely by shifting from this December to the following December is a horizon change. Save the original release next to the extracted row.
A year-end rate expected by investors is a separate object. A futures contract may reference a monthly average, and a swap quote may embed risk premia. A strong dollar response to a Fed meeting can also reflect the statement or press conference. Record time windows for each and avoid attributing the entire afternoon to one chart.
Read the projections that surround the rate dots
A higher rate median accompanied by stronger growth projections and unchanged inflation projections invites a different discussion from a higher rate median alongside persistent inflation and weaker growth. The published table shows multiple macroeconomic variables. Compare them for the same horizon, then resist assigning one participant’s growth assumptions to another participant’s rate dot. The public table does not provide that pairing.
A change in the number of dots can alter the median even when most participants’ broad views are similar. Count the distribution at the horizon in question and record whether the middle sits in a large cluster or between two smaller groups. A move at a thinly balanced middle is a precise statistic but a less informative summary of the breadth of agreement than many market headlines imply.
How to check the figures yourself
Copy the year heading with every median. If the latest release introduces a new outer year, a spreadsheet importing by column position can silently match different dates. Compare distributions where possible. A stable median can hide a larger group moving toward one side of the middle.
Compare forecasts with forecasts and outcomes with outcomes. The longer-run rate in the SEP reflects a different question from the year-end projection or the current policy range. Drawing a smooth line through them can suggest a policy timetable that no participant proposed.
Historical cases and a reproducible dollar comparison
To see what changes the dollar decision, take one clearly defined exposure: €32,460 invoice monitored across projections. The historical column follows EUR/USD, using daily Federal Reserve exchange-rate observations distributed through FRED as DEXUSEU. The exercise uses 12 complete or selected calendar months from 2021-12 through 2024-12. Only the months of twelve selected published projection releases are included. Rates are publicly observed. Retail fees, contract terms and decision rules in the examples are assumptions.
Multiply the euro amount by the observed dollar-per-euro rate. Keeping the invoice fixed separates the size of FX exposure from any change in policy projections. A revised median is not an input in the conversion and does not mechanically cause its result.
The modeled output is measured in US dollars. Its sign and units are essential when you work backward from a chart. Write the initial reference, the final reference, their dates and the modeled result in separate columns. Calculate with unrounded inputs, then round for display. A dollar-cent display may conceal small changes in the reference, especially where the model floors an outcome at zero. Separate information in the median from the statement, the press conference and the foreign central bank. A year-end projection by itself contains no executable price at which to convert an invoice.
Across these months the exchange quote rose 6 times, fell 6 times and was unchanged 0 times. The median absolute endpoint change was 2.11%. The 25th and 75th percentiles of signed endpoint returns, using the sorted observation at the floor of the fractional rank on a zero-based scale, were -2.35% and 1.41%. These are descriptive sample figures. A frequency of rising quotes is neither a rate of profitable trades nor the chance of a favorable outcome on a future payment.
| Selection | Month | Opening reference | Last reference | Change | Modeled final amount |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The largest rise | 2022-12 | 1.03230 | 1.06980 | 3.63% | 34,725.71 US dollars |
| The largest decline | 2022-09 | 1.00650 | 0.97830 | -2.80% | 31,755.62 US dollars |
| The quietest finish | 2024-03 | 1.08070 | 1.07910 | -0.15% | 35,027.59 US dollars |
| The widest daily range | 2023-03 | 1.06020 | 1.08720 | 2.55% | 35,290.51 US dollars |
| The busiest path | 2022-06 | 1.07310 | 1.04690 | -2.44% | 33,982.37 US dollars |
| A month near the middle | 2023-09 | 1.08390 | 1.05840 | -2.35% | 34,355.66 US dollars |
| A sharp single step | 2023-12 | 1.09080 | 1.10620 | 1.41% | 35,907.25 US dollars |
| A split-date budget | 2023-06 | 1.06540 | 1.09200 | 2.50% | 35,446.32 US dollars |
The largest rise | 2022-12
Start with the largest signed monthly rise in this sample. At the last observation of 2022-11, the quote was 1.03230. At 2022-12-30 it was 1.06980, a signed change of 3.63%. Applying the exposure rule to the earlier price gives 33,508.46 US dollars. Applying it to the later price gives 34,725.71 US dollars. The resulting difference is 1,217.25 US dollars. The quote and the modeled amount need not move in the same direction. Read the numerator and denominator of the actual contract before interpreting a rising candle as a higher bill.
For a plausible contemporaneous alternative, use the first observation of the new month, 1.04980 on 2022-12-01, as the budget anchor. The modeled change to the same ending date becomes 649.20 US dollars. You have altered only the starting timestamp. That small adjustment matters when the prior month ended before a weekend or holiday. A report that chooses the better anchor afterward mixes performance evaluation with hindsight. Use the timestamp of the actual invoice, forecast or mandate if one exists.
Read the two dated projection columns
For the release dated 2022-12-14, the official published median federal funds rate for year-end 2022 was 4.4%. The following year-end median, for 2023, was 5.1%. Subtracting the first median from the second gives 70 basis points across the two calendar horizons on the displayed precision. Both numbers came from the same publication. The result describes a cross-horizon difference, not a revision since the preceding release.
Under an illustrative market expectation of 5.225% for the following December, the published following-year median sits 12.5 basis points below that assumption. Swap in a market path 12.5 basis points below the median and the policy surprise changes sign while the official dots stay fixed. The market paths here are deliberate counterfactuals. A genuine announcement study requires a contract or curve calibrated before the release plus accurate timestamps. The monthly euro endpoints cannot supply either.
The largest decline | 2022-09
The steepest fall among the remaining months went from 1.00650 to 0.97830. The cross rate expressed in reverse would instead move from 0.99354 to 1.02218. Its signed percentage change is 2.88%, whereas the original quote changed by -2.80%. Reversing a percentage sign is only an approximation. Arithmetic returns in reciprocal currencies have different denominators. Use full-precision quotes when translating a dollar budget in either direction.
In the working example the unchanged exposure generated a modeled 31,755.62 US dollars at the end, against an original 32,670.99 US dollars. At the arithmetic midpoint of the two observed rates the modeled result would be 32,213.30 US dollars. By comparison the mean of the two modeled endpoint amounts is 32,213.30 US dollars. A linear conversion can make these coincide; a reciprocal or an option-like floor can separate them. This is a practical unit test for a budget spreadsheet built by averaging rates before conversion.
The quietest finish | 2024-03
A quiet monthly finish concealed a sequence of 21 observations. The first budget mark and last mark differed by only 0.15% in absolute quote terms. Between them, the lowest sampled exchange rate was 1.07910 on 2024-03-29 and the highest was 1.09440 on 2024-03-13. Their ordering is observable at the daily reference frequency. It says nothing about whether a stop or limit was touched first inside an individual trading day.
Including the original budget mark, the lowest and highest modeled amounts were 35,027.59 US dollars and 35,524.22 US dollars. A payment falling due inside this interval would use the terms available on its own date. Picking the cheapest date after seeing the month grants an option the original decision maker may never have had. Ask whether the underlying agreement allowed early settlement, whether the counterparty would accept it, and what financing or fees would accompany changing the date. The end-to-end change alone leaves out all three questions.
The widest daily range | 2023-03
For the widest remaining sample range, compare the recorded low of 1.05350 with the high of 1.08990. That spread is 3.43% of the previous month-end reference. If the exposure were valued separately at those two observations, the modeled amounts would be 34,196.61 US dollars and 35,378.15 US dollars. A full intraday high-low range could be larger than this sampled range. Treat these as independent reference valuations, not executable bid and offer quotes sitting on a dealer screen at the same instant.
Now place an administrative review on the middle observation, 2023-03-16. At 1.06220 the modeled amount was 34,479.01 US dollars. The remaining change to the final observation was 811.50 US dollars. This separates currency exposure before and after the person responsible could act. It is especially useful when a headline about the full month sounds alarming but the invoice was approved or the policy decision released much later. Use an actual approval timestamp for a real case.
Read the two dated projection columns
For the release dated 2023-03-22, the official published median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 was 5.1%. The following year-end median, for 2024, was 4.3%. Subtracting the first median from the second gives -80 basis points across the two calendar horizons on the displayed precision. Both numbers came from the same publication. The result describes a cross-horizon difference, not a revision since the preceding release.
Under an illustrative market expectation of 4.425% for the following December, the published following-year median sits 12.5 basis points below that assumption. Swap in a market path 12.5 basis points below the median and the policy surprise changes sign while the official dots stay fixed. The market paths here are deliberate counterfactuals. A genuine announcement study requires a contract or curve calibrated before the release plus accurate timestamps. The monthly euro endpoints cannot supply either.
The busiest path | 2022-06
This month has the greatest remaining sum of absolute observation-to-observation log changes: 11.58 percentage points. Its net endpoint change in ordinary percentage terms was -2.44%. Offsetting moves can make the first number large while leaving the second small. Absolute log movement is a path statistic. It includes both directions and must never be booked as the return someone earned by holding the exposure. Collecting every move would require knowing each reversal and being able to execute it after costs.
The annualized sample standard deviation calculated from the 21 log changes was 10.51%, using 252 observations per trading year. The mean level across this month’s daily exchange marks was 1.05672, whereas its median was 1.05390. Valuing the exposure at those two central rates gives 34,301.10 US dollars and 34,209.59 US dollars. The mean answers a question about evenly weighted observations and the median is the middle observation or average middle pair. Neither is necessarily the benchmark named in a specific agreement.
A month near the middle | 2023-09
Extreme outcomes attract attention. This case was chosen for being close to the median absolute monthly move among the remaining candidates, with an absolute change of 2.35%. Its 20 daily marks give an average modeled value of 34,640.50 US dollars. Valuing the same exposure only at the last mark produces 34,355.66 US dollars. The final observation therefore differs from the typical daily valuation measured by that average by a signed -284.84 US dollars. The difference can go either way; the average has no privileged status for a one-date settlement.
Suppose a report allowed one person to choose a monthly average and another to use the last observation. They could disagree by that amount while applying identical formulas and the same published data. Settle the disagreement by identifying the decision the figure supports. A month of evenly spread expenses calls for transaction weights or a stated approximation. A single invoice calls for its conversion date. A policy announcement needs a timed quote. The right measurement rule follows from the economic event and should be fixed before examining the answer.
Read the two dated projection columns
For the release dated 2023-09-20, the official published median federal funds rate for year-end 2023 was 5.6%. The following year-end median, for 2024, was 5.1%. Subtracting the first median from the second gives -50 basis points across the two calendar horizons on the displayed precision. Both numbers came from the same publication. The result describes a cross-horizon difference, not a revision since the preceding release.
Under an illustrative market expectation of 5.225% for the following December, the published following-year median sits 12.5 basis points below that assumption. Swap in a market path 12.5 basis points below the median and the policy surprise changes sign while the official dots stay fixed. The market paths here are deliberate counterfactuals. A genuine announcement study requires a contract or curve calibrated before the release plus accurate timestamps. The monthly euro endpoints cannot supply either.
A sharp single step | 2023-12
The largest remaining single-step move was from 1.07930 on 2023-12-13 to 1.09970 on 2023-12-14. In ordinary percentage terms that is 1.89%. Against the exposure rule, this step changes the modeled amount by 662.18 US dollars. Because the observations can be separated by nonbusiness days, describe this as an observation-to-observation change. The file cannot reveal which hour accounted for it or whether liquidity was available at either published level.
To check a claim about that step, identify the calendar of releases and local holidays for both currencies, then match each event with its precise published time. Look for an independent price series that actually traded in the proposed interval. A gap between daily reference marks invites a hypothesis; following the sequence of executable quotes is how you could test it. Changing an amount solely because of the two marks is an accounting exercise. Attributing the difference to a particular trader, institution or economic release needs additional evidence.
A split-date budget | 2023-06
Take the average modeled valuation on the first five available dates, 34,793.22 US dollars, and on the last five available dates, 35,430.74 US dollars. Their difference is 637.51 US dollars. This case has the largest remaining absolute gap by that definition. A plan fixed in advance to value half the exposure against each group would give a weighted amount of 35,111.98 US dollars if the exposure and its charges can be divided proportionately. The result is a comparison of timing policies. It does not reveal an optimal execution date.
A fixed charge can break that proportional assumption if two actual transactions each incur the full charge. An indivisible futures contract or option can prevent splitting the quantity at all. An announcement time cannot be averaged across ten dates. Before applying the exercise, identify the specific constraint: anonymous projections and a changing group of participants. Then identify which of the two windows an actual mandate would allow. Where the timing choice is unavailable, read the two amounts as a sensitivity range instead of an executable plan.
Check what a single decimal place conceals
An official projection table can display a year-end figure rounded to one decimal place while individual dot levels on the chart follow the rate convention used by participants. Calculate comparisons consistently on either the displayed table precision or carefully identified plotted dots. A difference between rounded table entries is a difference between published medians, not necessarily the exact movement of an unrounded underlying midpoint.
Suppose the median for a fixed year is unchanged while the middle half of projections narrows. That is a change in dispersion without a change in central tendency. It can matter for how uncertain a committee’s members appear about the horizon, although their dots are policy assessments rather than probability distributions. A statement claiming officials assigned a certain chance to a specific rate goes beyond the data. Report the count, spread and horizon and use market prices separately when discussing probabilities.
How to identify a usable EUR/USD setup on a chart
Open a five-minute EUR/USD replay and hide everything to the right of your intended decision. This is a hypothetical long case, constructed to show how anonymous projections and a changing group of participants fits into an execution record. Use New York local time for the chart, retaining the actual offset for the date. For a restricted or offshore currency, this drawing describes a price sequence, not the availability of a US retail contract. An economic reference period, a release time and a bar timestamp belong in separate fields.
In the first diagram the reference low is 1.09825. The candle that trades below it reaches 1.09755 before price returns into the range. To describe that move as a sweep in ICT terminology, mark the existing level first. If the level only becomes obvious after the reversal, save the observation as a retrospective pattern. An increase in volume or a financial headline cannot reveal whose orders traded there.
The displaced leg reaches beyond 1.10001. Read bars five, six and seven as a sequence. A gap between the outer wicks brackets the interval from 1.09946 to 1.09989. It is a chart definition of an imbalance. Price could fill that interval, pass straight through it or never revisit it. Only the first return that satisfies a rule written in advance can provide a candidate entry for this particular exercise.
How to trade the idea on demo and define failure
For the rehearsal, a buy at 1.09966 follows a return into the marked interval. If the order fails to fill, record an unfilled setup and retain the original timestamp. Moving the order toward the next favorable candle after that candle forms changes the test. Keep the macro or account question separate: The independent document check concerns anonymous projections and a changing group of participants. A convincing answer about that issue cannot make a missed entry executable.
The protective exit is 1.09715, beyond the sweep, and the planned target is 1.10493. For this long idea the favorable direction in the pair is higher. A live position can experience partial fills, a spread jump or a gap past the stop. For this drawing only we assume all levels execute exactly as stated. The second chart displays one favorable sequence so that the accounting can be checked. It supplies no evidence about how often such a sequence occurs.
Set an expiry for the entry and cancel the study if the invalidation trades before entry or if the spread makes the gross plan infeasible. If a coarse chart touches stop and target within one bar, lower-frequency OHLC cannot settle the order of events. Use properly timestamped executable quotes if available. Otherwise keep a separate ambiguous sample, and state that rule before counting wins. For this rehearsal the underlying document remains the source for the fixed-year policy median in successive projections.
Worked example in a US dollar account
| Ticket field | Rehearsal value |
|---|---|
| Instrument | EUR/USD hypothetical price exercise |
| Direction and size | long | 22,000 base units |
| Entry / stop / target | 1.09966 / 1.09715 / 1.10493 |
| Gross risk / reward | USD 55.22 / USD 115.94 |
| Assumed round-trip charge | USD 2.80 |
Calculate the distance before calculating the money. The entry-to-stop distance is |1.09966 minus 1.09715| = 0.00251, or 25.1 pips. The target distance is |1.10493 minus 1.09966| = 0.00527, or 52.7 pips. Keeping absolute distances here avoids giving a short setup a negative risk amount. The sign of the actual result belongs on the fill record after closing.
At 22,000 base units, the distance to the stop represents 55.22 USD and the distance to the target represents 115.94 USD. The quote currency and the account currency are both USD, so no additional conversion is needed. Gross reward divided by gross risk is USD 115.94 / USD 55.22 = 2.10. Written as risk:reward this is 1:2.10.
Assume a round-trip cost of USD 2.80 on either completed outcome. We use executable entry and exit prices, so a spread already inside those prices must not be charged again. The simplified net reward is USD 115.94 minus USD 2.80 = USD 113.14. Net planned loss is USD 55.22 plus USD 2.80 = USD 58.02. Net R:R is 1:1.95 because USD 113.14 / USD 58.02 = 1.95. Financing, slippage and tax are excluded from this short rehearsal.
Check the losing branch with the same care as the winning one. If the exit slips by one additional pip against you, the quote-currency impact on this size is 2.20 USD before any conversion. A plan denominated in dollars should reserve for an adverse fill or skip a setup that cannot fit the intended budget. Keep the original quote and the executed price alongside the size and currency of the exposure.
To annotate the rehearsal, mark the existing swing first, then identify displacement and the interval between the outer candle wicks. For definitions and session context, see the school’s lessons on fair value gaps, order blocks, the London session, market structure shifts, and the Judas swing.
Sources and calculation notes
Federal Reserve guide to the SEP. Federal Reserve projections and meeting materials.
Historical series and original records. DEXUSEU observations and units · SEP 2021-12-15 · SEP 2022-06-15 · SEP 2022-09-21 · SEP 2022-12-14 · SEP 2023-03-22 · SEP 2023-06-14 · SEP 2023-09-20 · SEP 2023-12-13 · SEP 2024-03-20 · SEP 2024-06-12 · SEP 2024-09-18 · SEP 2024-12-18. The calculations use observations available when checked on November 14, 2026. Subsequent revisions can change retrospective comparisons.
Frequently asked questions
Are the dots a binding promise?
They are participants’ conditional assessments of appropriate policy under their outlooks.
Can I identify the chair’s dot?
The official plot does not identify individual authors.
Is a dot a vote at the next meeting?
The horizons and participant set differ from a vote on a particular decision.
Why can a median stay flat while policy views shift?
Dots away from the middle can change without moving the middle observation.
How should I compare releases from different years?
Align the actual calendar horizon and the units before calculating the change in basis points.
To take the release from the data table to a dated trading record, use the news-release filter, bond-market fundamentals, liquidity sweeps, and hindsight-free replay.