USD/MXN Explained: Which Peso Rate Goes on the Invoice?

A US importer agrees a dollar-denominated amount payable in Mexico. The invoice mentions FIX. The purchasing team looks up USD/MXN, chooses the newest number and discovers that accounting applied a different rate for the payment date. Both numbers can come from Banco de México’s table.

Start with purchase contract and Banco de México fixing table. Look for benchmark date, publication date and obligation’s currency. The calculation you want is the dollars required to discharge a peso invoice. A common reason for a discrepancy is bank spread, holiday or different payment convention. The first worked figures below are illustrative. The historical section identifies the actual observations used and lets you change one assumption at a time.

Three dates can accompany one reference

Read across the official table using the labels for FIX, publication and payments. A rate determined on a banking day is published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on the following banking business day under the stated rules. For a particular payment, use the applicable date and the instructions in the table and contract. Weekends can produce valid payment entries on days when no new FIX was determined. A missing determination is not a zero peso value.

Suppose the applicable contractual rate is 17.4832 pesos per dollar for USD 24,700. The peso equivalent is MXN 431,835.04. A separate funding quote at 17.4168 yields a different dollar amount if you must buy those pesos. The first calculation defines the amount owed. The second describes the dollars needed to finance it. Recording the invoice at the funding quote instead can disguise a conversion cost as an unexplained change in supplier price.

Specify the rate source in plain language

A USD invoice payable in USD and a dollar-denominated obligation settled in pesos are different arrangements. Ask the counterparty which currency will discharge the obligation and which contract clause determines the conversion. If legal interpretation is required, give the contract and precise due date to qualified advisers. The market chart cannot decide which provision governs a specific obligation.

For a treasury reconciliation, preserve the FIX row including its labels, payment holidays, the commercial funding quote and the bank’s final debit. A budget built from the public H.10 daily peso rate can still be useful for sensitivity. It cannot replace the agreed FIX or an executable quote. The historical exercise below keeps those three rates separate.

When a vendor changes the wording of the invoice

An importer receives a revised PDF after the goods have shipped. The old copy said USD payable in pesos at an agreed fixing; the new one states a fixed peso face amount. These can look identical if the rate has barely moved. Calculate both obligations on the same later date. One changes the number of pesos due, the other changes the number of dollars needed. Send the controlling commercial terms to accounts payable with the approved calculation.

The public table contains rate and date labels for different uses. A date appearing in a browser’s local time or in a press report may be the announcement date. A bank may also impose an earlier cut-off for a transfer. Record the time the quote was actionable and the date funds must reach the beneficiary. Treat any legal conversion issue as contract-specific and use the official source when applying a Mexican obligation rule.

How to check the figures yourself

Start with the legal wording of the commercial invoice. A peso amount payable in pesos is a different starting point from a dollar amount convertible under specified rules. Decide which quantity is fixed before doing arithmetic and retain the date label attached to the reference in Banco de México’s table.

When the vendor changes the payment date, preserve the previous reference and start a new row. Recalculating the whole invoice with the latest FX chart erases why the old budget was reasonable. Compare the bank’s executable quote on the required date with the correct published benchmark and explain the residual.

Historical cases and a reproducible dollar comparison

To see what changes the dollar decision, take one clearly defined exposure: MXN 184,650 supplier invoice. The historical column follows USD/MXN, using daily Federal Reserve exchange-rate observations distributed through FRED as DEXMXUS. The exercise uses 96 complete or selected calendar months from 2017-01 through 2024-12. The fixed research window runs from January 2017 through December 2024. Rates are publicly observed. Retail fees, contract terms and decision rules in the examples are assumptions.

Divide the fixed peso invoice by the modeled executable rate, set at 99.6% of the observed peso-per-dollar reference. Add a flat $15 wire charge. The series isolates currency mechanics without substituting these US observations for a contractual Banxico FIX.

The modeled output is measured in US dollars. Its sign and units are essential when you work backward from a chart. Write the initial reference, the final reference, their dates and the modeled result in separate columns. Calculate with unrounded inputs, then round for display. A dollar-cent display may conceal small changes in the reference, especially where the model floors an outcome at zero. The reciprocal matters. Equal changes in pesos per dollar produce different dollar changes at different starting levels. A linear estimate can be useful near budget, but rerun the exact division for a large move.

Across these months the exchange quote rose 45 times, fell 51 times and was unchanged 0 times. The median absolute endpoint change was 2.31%. The 25th and 75th percentiles of signed endpoint returns, using the sorted observation at the floor of the fractional rank on a zero-based scale, were -2.48% and 1.92%. These are descriptive sample figures. A frequency of rising quotes is neither a rate of profitable trades nor the chance of a favorable outcome on a future payment.

The largest rise | 2020-03

Start with the largest signed monthly rise in this sample. At the last observation of 2020-02, the quote was 19.73000. At 2020-03-31 it was 23.44800, a signed change of 18.84%. Applying the exposure rule to the earlier price gives 9,411.43 US dollars. Applying it to the later price gives 7,921.50 US dollars. The resulting difference is -1,489.93 US dollars. The quote and the modeled amount need not move in the same direction. Read the numerator and denominator of the actual contract before interpreting a rising candle as a higher bill.

For a plausible contemporaneous alternative, use the first observation of the new month, 19.58300 on 2020-03-02, as the budget anchor. The modeled change to the same ending date becomes -1,560.47 US dollars. You have altered only the starting timestamp. That small adjustment matters when the prior month ended before a weekend or holiday. A report that chooses the better anchor afterward mixes performance evaluation with hindsight. Use the timestamp of the actual invoice, forecast or mandate if one exists.

Keep invoice benchmark and dealer rate distinct

Budget a fixed MXN 82,000 obligation. At the opening reference it translates to USD 4,156.11. At the ending reference the same face amount translates to USD 3,497.10. A bank offering 23.33076 pesos per dollar would debit USD 3,514.67 before wire fees. Of the total difference against budget, USD 17.57 arises solely from the assumed half-percent reduction in pesos delivered per dollar at settlement.

The remaining signed change, USD -659.01, comes from the two reference observations. Together they reconcile exactly to the net budget difference before rounding. Neither observation purports to be Banco de México’s legally specified FIX for the invoice. Substituting the contractually correct rate in the middle column leaves the accounting method intact and can materially change how much of the variance is attributed to bank execution.

The largest decline | 2020-05

The steepest fall among the remaining months went from 23.97900 to 22.17000. The cross rate expressed in reverse would instead move from 0.04170 to 0.04511. Its signed percentage change is 8.16%, whereas the original quote changed by -7.54%. Reversing a percentage sign is only an approximation. Arithmetic returns in reciprocal currencies have different denominators. Use full-precision quotes when translating a dollar budget in either direction.

In the working example the unchanged exposure generated a modeled 8,377.27 US dollars at the end, against an original 7,746.41 US dollars. At the arithmetic midpoint of the two observed rates the modeled result would be 8,049.48 US dollars. By comparison the mean of the two modeled endpoint amounts is 8,061.84 US dollars. A linear conversion can make these coincide; a reciprocal or an option-like floor can separate them. This is a practical unit test for a budget spreadsheet built by averaging rates before conversion.

The quietest finish | 2021-10

A quiet monthly finish concealed a sequence of 20 observations. The first budget mark and last mark differed by only 0.05% in absolute quote terms. Between them, the lowest sampled exchange rate was 20.16900 on 2021-10-20 and the highest was 20.76800 on 2021-10-12. Their ordering is observable at the daily reference frequency. It says nothing about whether a stop or limit was touched first inside an individual trading day.

Including the original budget mark, the lowest and highest modeled amounts were 8,941.79 US dollars and 9,206.91 US dollars. A payment falling due inside this interval would use the terms available on its own date. Picking the cheapest date after seeing the month grants an option the original decision maker may never have had. Ask whether the underlying agreement allowed early settlement, whether the counterparty would accept it, and what financing or fees would accompany changing the date. The end-to-end change alone leaves out all three questions.

The widest daily range | 2018-10

For the widest remaining sample range, compare the recorded low of 18.66250 with the high of 20.25500. That spread is 8.51% of the previous month-end reference. If the exposure were valued separately at those two observations, the modeled amounts would be 9,948.91 US dollars and 9,167.88 US dollars. A full intraday high-low range could be larger than this sampled range. Treat these as independent reference valuations, not executable bid and offer quotes sitting on a dealer screen at the same instant.

Now place an administrative review on the middle observation, 2018-10-16. At 18.77400 the modeled amount was 9,889.91 US dollars. The remaining change to the final observation was -722.03 US dollars. This separates currency exposure before and after the person responsible could act. It is especially useful when a headline about the full month sounds alarming but the invoice was approved or the policy decision released much later. Use an actual approval timestamp for a real case.

The busiest path | 2020-04

This month has the greatest remaining sum of absolute observation-to-observation log changes: 27.21 percentage points. Its net endpoint change in ordinary percentage terms was 2.26%. Offsetting moves can make the first number large while leaving the second small. Absolute log movement is a path statistic. It includes both directions and must never be booked as the return someone earned by holding the exposure. Collecting every move would require knowing each reversal and being able to execute it after costs.

The annualized sample standard deviation calculated from the 22 log changes was 25.90%, using 252 observations per trading year. The mean level across this month’s daily exchange marks was 24.17984, whereas its median was 24.05150. Valuing the exposure at those two central rates gives 7,682.20 US dollars and 7,723.11 US dollars. The mean answers a question about evenly weighted observations and the median is the middle observation or average middle pair. Neither is necessarily the benchmark named in a specific agreement.

A month near the middle | 2021-03

Extreme outcomes attract attention. This case was chosen for being close to the median absolute monthly move among the remaining candidates, with an absolute change of 2.36%. Its 23 daily marks give an average modeled value of 8,950.90 US dollars. Valuing the same exposure only at the last mark produces 9,084.59 US dollars. The final observation therefore differs from the typical daily valuation measured by that average by a signed 133.70 US dollars. The difference can go either way; the average has no privileged status for a one-date settlement.

Suppose a report allowed one person to choose a monthly average and another to use the last observation. They could disagree by that amount while applying identical formulas and the same published data. Settle the disagreement by identifying the decision the figure supports. A month of evenly spread expenses calls for transaction weights or a stated approximation. A single invoice calls for its conversion date. A policy announcement needs a timed quote. The right measurement rule follows from the economic event and should be fixed before examining the answer.

Keep invoice benchmark and dealer rate distinct

Budget a fixed MXN 730,000 obligation. At the opening reference it translates to USD 34,869.84. At the ending reference the same face amount translates to USD 35,712.54. A bank offering 20.33879 pesos per dollar would debit USD 35,892.00 before wire fees. Of the total difference against budget, USD 179.46 arises solely from the assumed half-percent reduction in pesos delivered per dollar at settlement.

The remaining signed change, USD 842.70, comes from the two reference observations. Together they reconcile exactly to the net budget difference before rounding. Neither observation purports to be Banco de México’s legally specified FIX for the invoice. Substituting the contractually correct rate in the middle column leaves the accounting method intact and can materially change how much of the variance is attributed to bank execution.

A sharp single step | 2024-06

The largest remaining single-step move was from 17.52120 on 2024-06-06 to 18.26620 on 2024-06-07. In ordinary percentage terms that is 4.25%. Against the exposure rule, this step changes the modeled amount by -431.55 US dollars. Because the observations can be separated by nonbusiness days, describe this as an observation-to-observation change. The file cannot reveal which hour accounted for it or whether liquidity was available at either published level.

To check a claim about that step, identify the calendar of releases and local holidays for both currencies, then match each event with its precise published time. Look for an independent price series that actually traded in the proposed interval. A gap between daily reference marks invites a hypothesis; following the sequence of executable quotes is how you could test it. Changing an amount solely because of the two marks is an accounting exercise. Attributing the difference to a particular trader, institution or economic release needs additional evidence.

A split-date budget | 2017-12

Take the average modeled valuation on the first five available dates, 9,895.78 US dollars, and on the last five available dates, 9,435.09 US dollars. Their difference is -460.69 US dollars. This case has the largest remaining absolute gap by that definition. A plan fixed in advance to value half the exposure against each group would give a weighted amount of 9,665.44 US dollars if the exposure and its charges can be divided proportionately. The result is a comparison of timing policies. It does not reveal an optimal execution date.

A fixed charge can break that proportional assumption if two actual transactions each incur the full charge. An indivisible futures contract or option can prevent splitting the quantity at all. An announcement time cannot be averaged across ten dates. Before applying the exercise, identify the specific constraint: bank spread, holiday or different payment convention. Then identify which of the two windows an actual mandate would allow. Where the timing choice is unavailable, read the two amounts as a sensitivity range instead of an executable plan.

What changes if the customer is the exporter?

A US manufacturer selling on a fixed peso invoice receives the contractual peso amount regardless of its budget rate. If the dollar buys more pesos by collection time, each peso converts into fewer dollars. A US buyer paying the same face amount experiences the opposite budget change. Using one chart arrow labeled good for the dollar misses the economic sign of the exposure. Put payable or receivable ahead of the exchange-rate formula.

For a payment specified as the peso equivalent of a dollar invoice, the sequence reverses. First calculate the pesos owed using the benchmark named in the agreement. The actual dollar proceeds from reconverting those pesos may then differ from the original nominal dollar invoice. A bank fee deducted from the incoming pesos further changes the available amount. The audit trail should allow another person to trace the dollar contract amount to pesos billed, pesos received and dollars credited. Four quantities with their dates are easier to reconcile than one effective rate that combines every step.

How to identify a usable USD/MXN setup on a chart

Open a five-minute USD/MXN replay and hide everything to the right of your intended decision. This is a hypothetical short case, constructed to show how bank spread, holiday or different payment convention fits into an execution record. Use New York local time for the chart, retaining the actual offset for the date. For a restricted or offshore currency, this drawing describes a price sequence, not the availability of a US retail contract. An economic reference period, a release time and a bar timestamp belong in separate fields.

In the first diagram the reference high is 17.48752. The candle that trades above it reaches 17.48801 before price returns into the range. To describe that move as a sweep in ICT terminology, mark the existing level first. If the level only becomes obvious after the reversal, save the observation as a retrospective pattern. An increase in volume or a financial headline cannot reveal whose orders traded there.

The displaced leg reaches beyond 17.48631. Read bars five, six and seven as a sequence. A gap between the outer wicks brackets the interval from 17.48639 to 17.48669. It is a chart definition of an imbalance. Price could fill that interval, pass straight through it or never revisit it. Only the first return that satisfies a rule written in advance can provide a candidate entry for this particular exercise.

How to trade the idea on demo and define failure

For the rehearsal, a sell at 17.48655 follows a return into the marked interval. If the order fails to fill, record an unfilled setup and retain the original timestamp. Moving the order toward the next favorable candle after that candle forms changes the test. Keep the macro or account question separate: The independent document check concerns bank spread, holiday or different payment convention. A convincing answer about that issue cannot make a missed entry executable.

The protective exit is 17.48829, beyond the sweep, and the planned target is 17.48342. For this short idea the favorable direction in the pair is lower. A live position can experience partial fills, a spread jump or a gap past the stop. For this drawing only we assume all levels execute exactly as stated. The second chart displays one favorable sequence so that the accounting can be checked. It supplies no evidence about how often such a sequence occurs.

Set an expiry for the entry and cancel the study if the invalidation trades before entry or if the spread makes the gross plan infeasible. If a coarse chart touches stop and target within one bar, lower-frequency OHLC cannot settle the order of events. Use properly timestamped executable quotes if available. Otherwise keep a separate ambiguous sample, and state that rule before counting wins. For this rehearsal the underlying document remains the source for the dollars required to discharge a peso invoice.

Worked example in a US dollar account

Calculate the distance before calculating the money. The entry-to-stop distance is |17.48655 minus 17.48829| = 0.00174, or 17.4 pips. The target distance is |17.48342 minus 17.48655| = 0.00313, or 31.3 pips. Keeping absolute distances here avoids giving a short setup a negative risk amount. The sign of the actual result belongs on the fill record after closing.

At 11,000 base units, the distance to the stop represents 19.14 MXN and the distance to the target represents 34.43 MXN. Convert to a USD result separately at each assumed exit by dividing by 17.48829 or 17.48342 MXN per US dollar. The conversion is slightly different on the two outcomes. Gross reward divided by gross risk is USD 1.97 / USD 1.09 = 1.80. Written as risk:reward this is 1:1.80.

Assume a round-trip cost of USD 1.70 on either completed outcome. We use executable entry and exit prices, so a spread already inside those prices must not be charged again. The simplified net reward is USD 1.97 minus USD 1.70 = USD 0.27. Net planned loss is USD 1.09 plus USD 1.70 = USD 2.79. Net R:R is 1:0.10 because USD 0.27 / USD 2.79 = 0.10. Financing, slippage and tax are excluded from this short rehearsal.

Check the losing branch with the same care as the winning one. If the exit slips by one additional pip against you, the quote-currency impact on this size is 1.10 MXN before any conversion. A plan denominated in dollars should reserve for an adverse fill or skip a setup that cannot fit the intended budget. Keep the original quote and the executed price alongside the size and currency of the exposure.

To annotate the rehearsal, mark the existing swing first, then identify displacement and the interval between the outer candle wicks. For definitions and session context, see the school’s lessons on fair value gaps, order blocks, the London session, market structure shifts, and the Judas swing.

Sources and calculation notes

Banco de México foreign exchange table. Banco de México FIX methodology.

Historical series and original records. DEXMXUS observations and units. The calculations use observations available when checked on November 14, 2026. Subsequent revisions can change retrospective comparisons.

Frequently asked questions

To check an exchange quote from another angle, see inverse currency quotes, broker quote differences, forex chart reading, and the trading journal.