A trade moves in your favour, reaches the old low you marked, and then continues another fifteen pips. On another day, price turns before that same type of objective. ICT standard deviation projections offer a way to organise possible expansion distances, but they become misleading when a trader treats every projected line as a destination the market must reach.
The useful skill is not adding more levels to a Fibonacci tool. It is selecting a defensible measurement range, fixing its anchors before the outcome, and comparing its projections with liquidity and other relevant price arrays. A correctly calculated level can still be a poor target if it sits beyond the part of the market your directional thesis actually explains.
This guide separates the geometry from the trade decision. You will learn how negative Fibonacci labels work, how anchor changes affect distant projections, and how to turn a candidate level into a complete plan. Two hypothetical EUR/USD trades show the arithmetic, including a losing outcome. The examples use ICT and SMC price-delivery logic, with Ghana session times and explicit execution assumptions.
ICT standard deviation projections, in the price-leg construction discussed here, extend a selected range by multiples of its own height. They map candidate prices beyond that range. They do not calculate the statistical standard deviation of returns, establish a probability of arrival, or generate an entry signal by themselves.
1. What are ICT standard deviation projections?
In ICT chart work, a selected high-to-low distance can be treated as a measurement unit and extended outward with a Fibonacci drawing tool. In his September 12, 2023 lesson, ICT demonstrates projections and compares them with liquidity and specific premium or discount arrays. The transferable principle is to assess where a measured extension meets a pre-existing objective. His examples do not establish that any arbitrary pair of points will forecast the next reversal. Source: ICT’s September 12 lesson, around 1:21 to 1:26.
The name creates a common misunderstanding. Statistical standard deviation measures the dispersion of observations around a mean. Calculating it requires a defined dataset, such as a series of returns, and a statistical formula. The chart construction here instead begins with two prices and their difference. NIST’s explanation of standard deviation describes the statistical measure, which is a different calculation. Source: NIST, Measures of Scale.
Consequently, a projection labelled minus two does not mean that price has reached a two-sigma event. It does not imply a particular confidence interval, a 95% boundary, or an unusually small probability of continuing. It means two selected range units beyond the zero anchor under the orientation defined in this article. The minus sign belongs to the drawing coordinates.
Several ICT methods use measured ranges, including specified session ranges and selected price legs. Their anchor rules are not interchangeable. This article concentrates on a price-leg projection study built around a liquidity excursion and a subsequent change in delivery. It does not attempt to compress every central bank dealers range, Asian range, or other session-range method into one universal rule.
2. Why projections matter in an ICT liquidity narrative
Start with a directional reason for studying the market. In a bearish scenario, price may run above an old high, reverse, and displace beneath a local low. The proposed draw might then be sell-side liquidity near a previous session low. A projection adds a distance estimate to that narrative: does a measured extension terminate near the old low, inside an unvisited imbalance, or far beyond any objective the analysis has identified?
This comparison can improve target discipline. Without it, a trader may place a take-profit at whichever price produces an attractive reward multiple. With it, the trader has two explicit observations to reconcile: a price reference visible before the trade and a level produced by a stated measurement. Agreement creates a candidate area to investigate, while disagreement is information that should remain visible.
A premium or discount array, often shortened to PD array, is an ICT price reference such as an order block, fair value gap, or breaker. A projected level is a calculated coordinate. The two have different origins. A projection passing through an FVG does not create that FVG, and an old low does not move because the Fibonacci tool suggests a more convenient target.
Neither observation reveals a complete inventory of institutional orders. ICT and SMC use liquidity and delivery as an interpretive framework; a chart directly shows recorded prices and their sequence. Spot FX execution is fragmented, and some trading is internalised by dealers. A retail chart cannot establish that one institution, or one universal algorithm, must deliver price to your extension. Source: BIS, FX execution algorithms and market functioning.
Use a projection to make the hypothesis more specific. A useful statement is: “If the bearish shift remains valid, I will study this measured level inside the previously marked discount array.” A statement that price must visit minus two because an algorithm has already scheduled it goes beyond the evidence available from the chart.
3. How to select and freeze the measurement anchors
Choose the model before drawing the tool
Anchor selection is the main source of discretion. A trader can measure the swing before a liquidity raid, the excursion that performs the raid, the later displacement, or a defined session range. Each produces different levels. Selecting whichever one fits the eventual low is an explanation after the event, not a repeatable projection method.
ICT’s July 3, 2023 breaker lesson discusses projecting an A-to-B leg within a specific pattern and distinguishes that measurement from another model’s leg selection. That distinction is useful: the anchors belong to the setup being studied. The lesson should not be reduced to “always measure the newest impulse.” Source: ICT’s advanced breaker lesson, around 35:13 to 37:53.
For our bearish worked protocol, A is an earlier local high and B is the intervening low before a later higher high C runs above A. After price reverses and closes below B, the earlier A-to-B distance becomes the fixed projection unit. The later raid high C remains relevant to invalidation, but it does not replace A in the measurement. This is an explicit educational specification rather than a claim that every ICT projection uses these anchors.
The bullish protocol mirrors that structure. A is an earlier local low, B is the intervening high, and C is a later lower low. Once price closes above B, the earlier A-to-B distance provides the unit for upward projections. Keep the directional labels separate from the numerical Fib labels: in the bullish setup, the high is the zero anchor even though it occurred after the original low.
Make the data convention visible
Use the full wick extremes for this study. Record the candle timestamps, prices, feed, and timeframe. A body-based variant may be worth researching, but it has a different range height. Switching between body and wick anchors after seeing the outcome makes performance impossible to interpret. If a swing is ambiguous, record that ambiguity before deciding whether it qualifies.
The examples use five-minute candle closing times. A local extreme is not considered confirmed merely because the developing bar temporarily stops moving. Our protocol waits for a completed close through B and then a completed three-candle FVG before allowing a later retracement entry. That delay is a chosen confirmation filter, not a requirement inherent in the projection formula.
Understand why distant levels magnify small errors
For a bearish projection, moving the high anchor up by one pip moves the minus-two target down by two pips if the low stays fixed. Moving the low anchor up by one pip moves that target up by three pips if the high stays fixed. A tiny disagreement in chart anchoring can therefore become a meaningful difference at the target.
In the main example, the original high is 1.08763, the intervening low is 1.08643, and the later raid high is 1.08779. Replacing the original high with the raid high increases the measured unit from 12.0 to 13.6 pips. The minus-two projection changes from 1.08403 to 1.08371, a 3.2-pip difference. This is a geometry comparison, not a second trade. The correct version is the one specified before the outcome, not the one nearest the final session low.
4. Calculate the projection levels step by step
Let H be the selected high, L the selected low, and D = H − L the range height. D is expressed in price units. For EUR/USD, dividing a price difference by 0.0001 converts it to pips. Keep full price precision during the calculation, then align the final level with the instrument’s permitted price increment.
Bearish orientation: Fib 1 = H and Fib 0 = L.
Price at Fib level r = L + r × D.
At r = −m, the downward projection is L − m × D.
Bullish orientation: Fib 1 = L and Fib 0 = H.
Price at Fib level r = H − r × D.
At r = −m, the upward projection is H + m × D.
The general coordinate equation is P(r) = P(0) + r × [P(1) − P(0)]. It is useful when a platform reverses its drawing orientation. You do not need to memorise which mouse drag makes the levels point upward. Check the prices at zero and one, then verify the price at minus one using the equation.
For the bearish measurement, H = 1.08763 and L = 1.08643. Therefore D = 1.08763 − 1.08643 = 0.00120, or 12.0 pips. The minus-one projection is 1.08643 − 0.00120 = 1.08523. The minus-two projection is 1.08643 − 2 × 0.00120 = 1.08403. Each additional whole negative level adds another twelve pips below the zero anchor.
| Fib coordinate | Distance below zero | Bearish projected price |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Original high anchor | 1.08763 |
| 0 | Zero, the original low anchor | 1.08643 |
| −0.5 | 6.0 pips | 1.08583 |
| −1 | 12.0 pips | 1.08523 |
| −1.5 | 18.0 pips | 1.08463 |
| −2 | 24.0 pips | 1.08403 |
| −2.5 | 30.0 pips | 1.08343 |
| −3 | 36.0 pips | 1.08283 |
These rows are measurement coordinates, not a collection of recommended trades or automatic exit orders. A chart can display several candidates while a plan selects only one. Half-unit levels subdivide the same range. Their availability on a drawing tool does not prove that they have independent predictive importance.
The negative label describes the Fib coordinate. It points downward when zero is the low and upward when zero is the high. Each full projected step equals the selected source range height. The diagrams isolate the measurement; trade confirmation and risk are addressed separately.
For the bullish measurement, the high is 1.09257 and the low is 1.09147, so D = 0.00110, or 11.0 pips. With zero at 1.09257 and one at 1.09147, minus one is 1.09257 + 0.00110 = 1.09367. Minus two is 1.09257 + 2 × 0.00110 = 1.09477. The negative label now appears above the source range because the coordinates are reversed.
Also distinguish distance from zero from distance across the entire drawing. In the bearish example, the distance from the original high at one to the minus-two level is three range units, or 36 pips. The distance from zero to minus two is two units, or 24 pips. Neither number is automatically the trade’s risk or reward, because the entry and stop can be elsewhere.
5. Set up the chart without hiding an orientation error
A two-point Fibonacci retracement drawing can display custom levels outside its original range. A practical study template can show 1, 0, −0.5, −1, −1.5, −2, −2.5, and −3. This list is a working display for the examples, not an exhaustive list of ICT settings. Hide levels you are not studying so that a dense ladder does not obscure the price narrative.
On TradingView, the Fib drawing supports custom ratios, price labels, a reverse option, and exact coordinate entry. Verify the final prices instead of relying on the apparent drag direction. Its logarithmic calculation option changes the geometry, so use linear price calculations for the arithmetic in this article. Source: TradingView’s Fibonacci retracement documentation.
Check three points before interpreting the drawing: the price at one, the price at zero, and the price at minus one. For the bearish illustration they must be 1.08763, 1.08643, and 1.08523 respectively. If your tool displays another sequence, inspect its orientation, coordinates, and scale settings. Do not change the trade explanation to accommodate an incorrectly configured drawing.
A three-point extension tool introduces an additional placement point. It can be useful in other methods, but it is not automatically equivalent to the two-anchor coordinate construction shown here. Mixing the two tools without defining the third point can shift every projected level. Record the drawing type with the rest of the study settings.
On a small phone screen, preserve legibility by showing the selected objective and perhaps one intermediate checkpoint. Keep the full ladder in a saved study view. A Ghana-based trader working from a mobile chart should be able to read the price label without confusing it with the Fib coordinate. A label such as “−2: 1.08403” makes the distinction explicit.
6. Turn a projection into a trade plan
The projection answers where a measured expansion would lie. It does not answer whether to enter now, where to place the stop, or how much to risk. Our worked protocol uses a liquidity excursion, a completed structure shift, and a later FVG retracement for those decisions. The projection is used only to evaluate the planned destination.
- Mark the destination independently. Identify the old high or low and any relevant higher-timeframe array before applying the measured ladder.
- Record the source leg. Write down A and B with their timestamps and wick prices. Keep the later raid extreme C separate.
- Confirm the local delivery change. Require the chosen closing-price filter through B, then wait for the three FVG candles to complete.
- Compare candidate projections with the destination. Record which level, if any, lies within the previously marked area. Do not enlarge that area to capture a convenient level.
- Define entry and invalidation. The examples use a later limit at the FVG midpoint and a stop beyond the raid extreme with a stated buffer.
- Calculate the actual trade R:R. Use entry, stop, target, and costs. The Fib label is not a reward multiple.
- Set cancellation and management rules. Cancel an unfilled order if the premise fails, the selected objective is reached first, or the study window ends. Fix partial-exit or trailing rules before the trade begins.
Confluence needs a boundary. For example, a projection either falls inside a previously defined fifteen-minute FVG or it does not. If you allow a tolerance around an old low, specify that tolerance before examining the outcome. “Near enough” becomes unreliable when the permitted distance expands every time a projected target misses.
Inspect the path as well as the endpoint. Several opposing arrays or repeated two-way swings can make an apparently attractive target difficult to reach within the planned holding period. The liquidity-run guide explains this route assessment. A measured extension does not remove the obstacles between the current quote and the destination.
Finally, account for executable prices. Under the usual bid/ask convention, a long opens at the ask and closes by selling at the bid; a short opens at the bid and closes by buying at the ask. A displayed candle touching a target is not sufficient if it represents the wrong quote side. Consult the instrument and broker order rules. Source: MetaTrader 5 trading concepts.
7. Complete bearish EUR/USD example: a projected target
The context exists before the measurement
Consider an invented winter London session. All times below are five-minute candle closes in Ghana GMT. Before the setup, the trader has marked a previous session low at 1.08411 and an unvisited fifteen-minute bullish FVG from 1.08387 to 1.08419. In the bearish scenario, the low is a sell-side reference and the FVG is a potential destination at which downward delivery could pause.
At 7:30 AM, price forms local high A at 1.08763. It subsequently falls to intervening low B at 1.08643 at 7:45. A later rally reaches C at 1.08779 at 8:00, passing above A by 1.6 pips. The measured leg remains A to B, with a height of 12.0 pips. C provides the later raid extreme; it is not substituted into the projection anchors.
The 8:05 candle has a low of 1.08701. At 8:10, a bearish displacement candle closes at 1.08631, beneath B. The third candle, closing at 8:15, has a high of 1.08677. The first candle’s low and third candle’s high establish a completed bearish FVG from 1.08677 to 1.08701. Its midpoint is (1.08677 + 1.08701) / 2 = 1.08689.
Select the objective and place the later order
The minus-two projection is 1.08643 − 2 × 0.00120 = 1.08403. That lies inside the fifteen-minute FVG, 0.8 pip below the previous session low at 1.08411. It is therefore a candidate for a move that reaches through that low into the existing discount array. The minus-2.5 projection at 1.08343 lies below the identified destination zone and is not selected simply because it offers a larger nominal reward.
After the 8:15 FVG completion, the trader places a sell limit at 1.08689. During the bar closing at 8:20, assume the bid reaches that price and fills the order. The stop is 1.08793, which is 1.4 pips above raid high C at 1.08779. The target is the selected projection at 1.08403. No partial exits or stop changes are used in this example.
The illustrated path subsequently moves through the minus-one checkpoint at 1.08523 and reaches the target during the bar closing at 9:00. Its bid low is 1.08397; the example separately assumes the ask reaches 1.08403 so that the short take-profit executes. The chart’s low alone would not prove that execution in a real replay. This is a constructed target-first outcome, not a historical performance claim.
Bearish entry, risk, reward, and costs
Entry: 1.08689. Stop: 1.08793. Target: 1.08403.
Risk = (1.08793 − 1.08689) / 0.0001 = 10.4 pips.
Reward = (1.08689 − 1.08403) / 0.0001 = 28.6 pips.
Risk:reward = 10.4:28.6 = 1:2.75. Gross reward multiple = 28.6 / 10.4 = 2.75R.
Assume an additional 0.8-pip round-trip allowance for commission and adverse slippage beyond the baseline executable prices. Net target gain = 28.6 − 0.8 = 27.8 pips. Budgeted stopped loss = 10.4 + 0.8 = 11.2 pips. Cost-adjusted multiple = 27.8 / 11.2 = 2.48R, rounded.
The measurement uses the earlier A-to-B range. The later higher high C affects the structural stop but does not change the unit. Minus two lies inside the pre-existing destination array. The short exit assumes the ask reaches the target; a displayed bid low by itself does not establish that fill.
For a sizing illustration, assume a USD account with $2,000 equity and a chosen 0.5% risk budget, or $10. Assume the EUR/USD contract is 100,000 euros per standard lot, with a pip value of approximately $10 per standard lot in the USD account. Raw size = $10 / (11.2 × $10) = 0.0892857 lots. With a 0.01-lot increment, round down to 0.08 lots.
At that size, estimated stopped loss = 11.2 × $10 × 0.08 = $8.96. Estimated net target gain = 27.8 × $10 × 0.08 = $22.24. The ratio is $22.24 / $8.96 = 2.48, rounded. This example’s minus-two Fib coordinate therefore produces 2.75R gross and approximately 2.48 budgeted R after the stated costs. The projection label and payoff multiple are different quantities.
Verify the actual contract specification, account currency conversion, volume step, and fees before applying a sizing formula. The selected percentage and cost allowance are teaching inputs. Execution through a gap or a fast market can exceed the allowance. When reconciling an actual trade, avoid adding the spread twice if the recorded entry and exit already use executable bid and ask prices.
8. Bullish example: a valid projection with a losing trade
In a separate invented winter New York session, EUR/USD forms an initial low A at 1.09147 and an intervening high B at 1.09257. It later trades down to C at 1.09129, passing the original low. The trader is studying a potential upward reversal toward an old high at 1.09463 and a previously marked fifteen-minute bearish FVG from 1.09461 to 1.09493.
The source range is 1.09257 − 1.09147 = 0.00110, or 11.0 pips. For upward projections, zero is at the high of 1.09257 and one is at the low of 1.09147. Minus two is 1.09257 + 2 × 0.00110 = 1.09477. That candidate lies inside the bearish FVG and 1.4 pips beyond the old high. Its geometric relationship to the destination is valid even if the proposed trade later fails.
The candle closing at 12:15 PM has a high of 1.09209. At 12:20, the middle displacement candle closes at 1.09276, above B. The candle closing at 12:25 has a low of 1.09225, completing a bullish FVG from 1.09209 to 1.09225. A later retracement at 12:35 is assumed to fill a buy limit at its midpoint, 1.09217.
The stop is 1.09113, 1.6 pips below the raid low C. The target is 1.09477. Price initially rises to 1.09321, then reverses. During the bar closing at 1:05 PM, the bid falls to 1.09107 and crosses the stop. Assume baseline execution at 1.09113 plus the separately modelled additional costs. The trade has no breakeven move or partial exit, so the earlier favourable excursion does not turn it into a win.
Bullish planned R:R and stopped outcome
Risk = (1.09217 − 1.09113) / 0.0001 = 10.4 pips.
Reward = (1.09477 − 1.09217) / 0.0001 = 26.0 pips.
Planned risk:reward = 10.4:26.0 = 1:2.5, or 2.50R gross.
With the same 0.8-pip additional cost allowance, net target gain would be 26.0 − 0.8 = 25.2 pips. Budgeted loss = 10.4 + 0.8 = 11.2 pips. Planned cost-adjusted multiple = 25.2 / 11.2 = 2.25R.
The actual constructed outcome is a stopped loss of 11.2 pips including the assumed costs, or −1.00 budgeted R. At 0.08 lots under the previous contract assumptions, the loss is −$8.96. The projected target remains unrealised.
The projection did not become mathematically incorrect when the trade lost. The calculation answered where two source-range units above B would be. It did not establish that the market would travel there before invalidating the entry. A later rally to 1.09477 would not erase the earlier stopped outcome or justify rewriting the trade record.
That separation is useful when reviewing losses. Check whether the anchors, confirmation, quote-side fill, and management followed the plan. Then record the outcome independently. An invalid execution should be corrected, but a valid losing trade does not justify searching the chart for a different range that would make the original forecast look successful.
9. Ghana session timing and projection availability
Ghana observes GMT throughout the year, while New York changes between standard time and daylight saving time. For a New York-anchored ICT routine, the corresponding Ghana window therefore shifts by one hour. The familiar London Kill Zone of 7 to 10 AM and New York Kill Zone of noon to 3 PM Ghana time are the winter conversions for the definitions below. Ghana time reference; New York time reference.
| Reference in New York time | Ghana during New York standard time | Ghana during New York daylight time |
|---|---|---|
| London Kill Zone: 2 to 5 AM | 7 to 10 AM GMT | 6 to 9 AM GMT |
| New York Kill Zone: 7 to 10 AM | Noon to 3 PM GMT | 11 AM to 2 PM GMT |
| New York midnight open | 5 AM GMT | 4 AM GMT |
London and New York change clocks on different dates. If your model is anchored to New York, convert that clock for the specific date rather than assuming the London local opening is always equivalent. The article’s worked times describe hypothetical winter sessions. They should not be copied unchanged into a summer study.
Time affects the information available for the projection. A high formed after the intended entry cannot be used to claim that a fully specified target existed before that entry. Likewise, a session-range projection cannot be final until the stated measurement window has ended. Record when the anchors were frozen, not just when they later appeared on the completed chart.
Also distinguish bar opening labels from closing labels. A five-minute candle labelled 8:10 by its opening time finishes at 8:15. The examples consistently use closing times. For a trader studying on a phone between other commitments in Ghana, a short written note of the broker server offset, New York offset, and bar-label convention prevents many replay errors.
10. Test the method without fitting targets to the outcome
Begin with a specification that another reader could follow. Define the source-leg pattern, timeframe, wick or body convention, structure confirmation, FVG completion, entry, stop buffer, target-selection rule, costs, and expiry. If a candidate projection must sit inside a higher-timeframe FVG, record that FVG before the projection is chosen. Do not permit its boundaries to drift afterward.
Save a chart at the moment of qualification with later candles hidden. Record all eligible setups from a consecutive series of sessions, including unfilled orders, invalidated plans, stopped trades, and days without a setup. A collection of final charts that all terminate near minus two cannot reveal how often the same method failed to predict a usable move.
Separate three results: whether price eventually touched a projection, whether the target was reached within the defined session, and whether a specific entry reached that target before its stop. Those are different questions with different denominators. A level touched late in the day after an earlier stop may count as a geometric observation, but it remains a losing trade under the recorded execution rules.
Measure the incremental effect of the projection rule. One comparison could use the same entries and stops while testing a predefined liquidity target against a predefined projection-confluence target. Report fill rate, net average R, drawdown, time in trade, and ambiguous outcomes. Keep the target-selection process fixed across both samples so that the comparison tests the intended difference.
If both stop and target occur inside one historical candle, its OHLC values do not reveal which came first. Obtain finer quote data or apply a conservative ambiguity rule established in advance. For short exits, retain ask information where possible. A spreadsheet containing precise-looking R multiples is not reliable if its underlying fills cannot be supported by the available data.
Use anchor sensitivity as a diagnostic. Calculate how much the selected target would move if an anchor differed by one tick or one pip. A result that depends on a single broker’s exact wick may be fragile across feeds. For the bearish formula T = (1 + m)L − mH, the influence of the low grows with 1 + m and the influence of the high grows with m. Larger projections amplify measurement differences.
Do not add a new range and another half-unit level every time the previous version misses. That expands the number of ways a chart can appear to fit. Retain a later period of data that was not used to design the rules, and evaluate the unchanged specification on it. Any subsequent rule change creates a new study version. The trading journal guide can help organise the evidence.
11. Frequently asked questions
Are ICT standard deviation projections the same as statistical standard deviation?
No. The price-leg method in this guide uses the distance between selected high and low anchors as its unit. Statistical standard deviation measures dispersion in a specified dataset around its mean. A minus-two projection therefore carries no automatic two-sigma interpretation, confidence interval, or probability of reversal.
Why do negative levels sometimes appear above price?
The sign describes the drawing coordinate, not bullishness or bearishness. With zero at the selected high and one at the selected low, negative coordinates extend above the high. Reverse those anchor labels and negative coordinates extend below the low. Verify the prices at zero, one, and minus one before using the ladder.
Does a minus-two target mean a 2R trade?
No. Minus two is a multiple of the source range measured beyond the zero anchor. R is defined by the actual trade risk. In the bearish example, the minus-two target gives 2.75R gross because entry and stop are not the projection anchors. Always calculate reward divided by risk separately, then account for costs.
Should I always measure the manipulation leg?
No single leg-selection shortcut covers every ICT method. This article specifies the pre-raid A-to-B leg in its worked protocol and keeps the later extreme C separate. Another model may define a different range. Name the model, record its anchors before the outcome, and avoid changing the measurement because another leg fits the final high or low better.
Which is the best projection level: minus one, minus two, or minus 2.5?
This article establishes no universally best level. A candidate needs to fit a pre-existing liquidity objective or array, the available price path, and the holding window. A farther extension offers more distance but also requires more travel. Its presence on a chart does not make it a more suitable take-profit.
Can I enter a reversal as soon as price reaches a projection?
A projection touch alone is not an entry signal in the protocol taught here. It may be an area at which to observe the next delivery sequence, but that sequence needs its own confirmation and risk rules. Selling every upward extension or buying every downward extension would be a different strategy requiring separate evidence.
What if the source high or low changes before entry?
Follow the specification. If the selected leg is not yet complete, its developing coordinates are provisional. Once the protocol freezes the earlier A-to-B anchors, a new raid extreme is recorded separately. If new information invalidates the setup, cancel it. Do not quietly rebuild the original ladder while continuing to report it as the same forecast.
Can Ghana traders use these projections on mobile charts?
Yes, if the platform supports the required custom levels and precise price coordinates. Use a clear display, verify the numerical anchors, and convert the New York session correctly for the date. The calculation does not depend on being in a particular country. Execution quality and the ability to follow a consistent routine still matter.
What win rate should I expect from this method?
No verified win rate follows from the projection formula or the two invented examples. An estimate requires a complete sample, stable rules, realistic quote-side fills, and costs. Projection accuracy and trade profitability are separate measurements. Use simulation and a documented review process before deciding whether the method warrants any limited live testing.
To connect the projection exercise with the rest of an ICT trading plan, study fair value gaps for entry and destination boundaries, review order blocks as additional price references, build a timed routine with the London Kill Zone guide, clarify confirmation with market structure shifts, and understand the opening liquidity excursion through the ICT Judas Swing. Use the measured levels to make an already defined hypothesis testable, then let the recorded outcome challenge it.